AUSTIN, Texas — Mel Kiper Jr. wrote Friday that the race for the No. 1 pick in the 2027 NFL draft comes down to two quarterbacks, Texas Longhorns starter Arch Manning and Oregon’s Dante Moore, and that at least five quarterbacks will go in the first round. The predictions ran in a 10-item ESPN column published Sept. 4, one day before the Longhorns opened the season.
Kiper has not released a Big Board or a mock draft for the 2027 class. He listed Moore first. Moore is 21, entered the season with 20 career starts, and completed 71.8% of his passes in 2025, which ranked fifth in the FBS. Kiper wrote that Moore could be QB1 if he plays better in big games.
In the mock draft Kiper released with Field Yates on Aug. 31, he took Manning second for the New York Jets, one spot behind Moore, and said that when Manning extends a play the throw at the end has to be precise rather than in the area.
“Everyone knows about Texas’ Arch Manning by now, and he’s also a potential No. 1 pick,” Kiper wrote. “Like Moore, he has a lot of talent around him, and he comes into 2026 with 15 career starts to his name. He’s dangerous with his legs (10 rushing scores last season), and he can make throws rolling out either direction. But I want to see the accuracy jump this year. You can’t be hitting 61.4% of your passes in college and expect to be accurate against tighter pro-level coverage. I’m looking for Manning to complete more of those easy throws and let his athleticism shine.”
Arch Manning’s Numbers Entering Ohio State Week
Manning completed 248 of 404 passes for 3,163 yards with 26 touchdowns and 7 interceptions in 2025, his first season as the full-time starter. He ran for 399 yards and 10 touchdowns. Over the final eight games, he threw 15 touchdown passes with 2 interceptions.
Texas finished 10-3 and missed the College Football Playoff. The Longhorns opened the 2025 season ranked first in the Associated Press poll and lost 14-7 at Ohio State, a game in which Manning threw for 170 yards.
On Saturday, Manning went 20-of-27 for 305 yards with 4 touchdowns and 1 interception as No. 5 Texas beat Texas State 59-7 at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. He threw 2 touchdown passes to Cam Coleman and 1 each to Ryan Wingo and Hollywood Smothers. The interception came in the second quarter. Manning left the game in the third quarter with Texas ahead 42-7.
Mel Kiper Jr.’s First-Round Quarterback Count
Kiper wrote that the 2026 quarterback class fizzled and that several passers who might have come out in 2026 stayed in school instead, which leaves the 2027 group with more prepared passers and less projection.
Beyond Moore and Manning, Kiper wrote that he feels most solid on Notre Dame’s CJ Carr, Miami’s Darian Mensah, and USC’s Jayden Maiava going on Day 1 right now. Mensah threw 34 touchdown passes last season, tied for second in the country. Maiava went 25-of-29 for 286 yards with 3 total touchdowns in a Week 0 win over San Jose State.
Kiper put Ohio State’s Julian Sayin and Oklahoma State’s Drew Mestemaker, who transferred from North Texas, in a “maybe” category. He also listed Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss, South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers, UCLA’s Nico Iamaleava, and LSU’s Sam Leavitt as names that could enter the conversation.
“There’s probably a dozen guys who could get into Round 1, but that doesn’t mean anything unless some of these QBs actually perform,” Kiper wrote. “It’s probably going to be five first-round quarterbacks when it’s all said and done, but I’ll leave the door open for someone to rise.”
Kiper closed the column by picking Oregon to beat Notre Dame for the national championship.
No. 1 Ohio State visits Austin on Saturday, Sept. 12, at 6:30 p.m. CT on ABC. Texas then plays UTSA on Sept. 19 at 7 p.m. CT on SEC Network+ and opens SEC play at Tennessee on Sept. 26 at 11 a.m. CT.
