FRISCO, Texas — Bill Barnwell has the Dallas Cowboys back in the playoffs. ESPN published his 2026 projection Wednesday morning, hours before the league’s first game, and Dallas is in it as an NFC wild card.
Six teams from the 2025 postseason had to come out to make room. Barnwell dropped the San Francisco 49ers, Chicago Bears, Los Angeles Chargers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Green Bay Packers, and Carolina Panthers. In their place he took Dallas, the Kansas City Chiefs, the New York Giants, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Baltimore Ravens, and the Detroit Lions.
How Bill Barnwell Built the 2026 Field
A year ago Barnwell used the same system to pick the Bears, Jaguars, and 49ers as newcomers, and all three reached the playoffs. He also had the Cardinals in that field, and Arizona finished last in the NFC. He has picked a Chiefs-Packers Super Bowl in each of the past two seasons. Kansas City missed the postseason outright last year, and Green Bay lost to Chicago in the wild-card round as the seventh seed.
Historical return rates dating to 2002 cap the column at eight returning playoff teams, six newcomers, and five of the eight division winners from a year ago.
His NFC field has the Seattle Seahawks, Philadelphia Eagles, Tampa Bay, and Detroit winning divisions, with the Los Angeles Rams, Dallas, and New York as wild cards. The AFC side has the New England Patriots, Houston Texans, Baltimore, and Kansas City on top of the divisions, followed by the Denver Broncos, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Buffalo Bills. Barnwell picked Kansas City to beat Philadelphia 27-24 in Super Bowl LXI.
Christian Parker calls the Dallas defense for the first time Sunday, and as many as seven new starters could be on the field for him. Barnwell pointed to the roster turnover Nick Harris of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram counted after final cuts.
Dallas forced takeaways on 6.2% of opposing drives last season, 30th in the league. Only Washington and the New York Jets finished below the Cowboys. Their interception rate of 1.1% ranked third worst.
All 11 offensive starters are back from a season where the Cowboys scored 471 points and allowed 511. Dak Prescott accounted for 4,552 passing yards, with 30 touchdowns and 10 interceptions in 17 starts.
Dallas Cowboys Open at the New York Giants on Sunday Night
One of those 11 will not be at MetLife Stadium. Cowboys coach Brian Schottenheimer said Monday that left guard Tyler Smith would go on injured reserve and have surgery Tuesday on his left thumb. Smith played through ligament damage from training camp into last week.
Schottenheimer could not say when the thumb was hurt.
“It’s a long season, so let’s get this fixed,” Schottenheimer said.
Grip strength is what made the decision for an offensive lineman, and Schottenheimer said Smith heals quickly.
“He felt like he couldn’t do the things he had to do,” Schottenheimer explained.
T.J. Bass takes the job. He has 10 career starts, five of them last season, and re-signed as a restricted free agent on a one-year contract worth $5.8 million. Smith is out four to six weeks, which puts a Week 5 return against Tampa Bay on a Thursday in play and Oct. 18 at Green Bay in better shape.
George Pickens caught 93 passes for 1,429 yards and 9 touchdowns in front of that line last season.
Last month, Bleacher Report went further than Barnwell did and projected Dallas as the NFC East champion and the No. 3 seed.
Dallas finished 7-9-1 in 2025 and missed the playoffs for a second straight season. New York took the finale between the teams 34-17 on Jan. 4.
Kickoff Sunday is 7:20 p.m. CT at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, on NBC. Dallas is 11-1 in season openers against the Giants.
