DALLAS — The Dallas Cowboys will return to the playoffs as NFC East champions if Bleacher Report’s latest preseason projection holds up.
NFL analyst Moe Moton has Dallas finishing 10-7, winning the division, and taking the No. 3 seed in the NFC. The projection was published Wednesday as part of Moton’s predicted standings for all 32 NFL teams ahead of the first full week of preseason games.
Philadelphia also landed at 10-7 in the projection, but Moton gave the division to Dallas. Washington was next at 8-9, followed by the New York Giants at 7-10.
Moton’s case for Dallas starts on defense. The Cowboys changed coordinators and added several starters after finishing last in the NFL in points allowed.
Christian Parker replaced Matt Eberflus in January. Dallas later traded for Rashan Gary, drafted Caleb Downs and Malachi Lawrence in the first round, and added Cobie Durant in free agency.
DeMarvion Overshown was another part of Moton’s projection. If Overshown stays healthy, Moton wrote, the Cowboys could have one of the NFL’s most improved defenses.
Why Bleacher Report Is Buying The Dallas Cowboys’ Defense
Dallas allowed 511 points last season, or 30.1 per game. Both figures ranked last in the NFL. Opponents gained 6,409 yards against the Cowboys, including 4,276 through the air.
The personnel turnover started well before the draft.
Dallas sent a 2027 fourth-round pick to the Green Bay Packers in March for Gary. The former first-round pick had 46.5 sacks through seven seasons with Green Bay and had 7.5 sacks, 20 quarterback hits, 7 tackles for loss, and a forced fumble in 2025.
The trade also reunited Gary with Parker, who worked as a defensive quality control coach in Green Bay during Gary’s rookie season in 2019.
Dallas then used both of its first-round picks on defense.
The Cowboys moved from No. 12 to No. 11 in a trade with the Miami Dolphins and selected Downs out of Ohio State. Dallas sent Miami picks Nos. 12, 177, and 180.
Later in the first round, Dallas traded back from No. 20 to No. 23 with the Philadelphia Eagles before selecting Lawrence out of UCF.
Durant joined the secondary on a one-year deal after spending four seasons with the Los Angeles Rams. He started 39 of 61 games during that span and intercepted 7 passes, returning 2 for touchdowns.
Moton called Durant an underrated addition.
Parker has also changed how Dallas is lining up. The Cowboys have shown multiple fronts and more movement before the snap during camp.
That defense saw the Rams on Tuesday after spending the first two weeks of camp against Dallas’ offense.
Dallas intercepted 3 passes during the joint practice in Woodland Hills, California. Linebacker Justin Barron picked off reigning NFL MVP Matthew Stafford once and Stetson Bennett twice.
The Cowboys also produced more than five would-be sacks during the session. Gary, Quinnen Williams, Shemar James, Donovan Ezeiruaku, and others generated pressure.
Cowboys coach Brian Schottenheimer said afterward that the defense carried a different mentality from the unit Dallas fielded last season.
How Bleacher Report Projects The NFC East
Dallas was not given much separation from Philadelphia.
Moton projected both teams at 10-7. The Cowboys won the division in his forecast, while the Eagles landed in the postseason as the No. 7 seed.
Philadelphia has Sean Mannion calling the offense and no longer has A.J. Brown in the receiver room. Moton still projected Jalen Hurts and the Eagles to finish 10-7.
The Eagles also return Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith, and a defense Moton expects to keep them in the playoff race.
Washington came in at 8-9.
The Commanders added Odafe Oweh, K’Lavon Chaisson, Sonny Styles, Tim Settle, and Leo Chenal to the front seven. On offense, Jayden Daniels will play behind a line that no longer has Laremy Tunsil at left tackle.
The Giants were projected at 7-10. Moton cited questions surrounding a New York offense working under coordinator Matt Nagy, along with Malik Nabers‘ recovery from a torn ACL.
Moton has the Los Angeles Rams at 13-4 and the No. 1 seed. Detroit is second at 11-6. Dallas comes next at 10-7, followed by New Orleans at 9-8.
His three NFC Wild Cards are Seattle, Chicago, and Philadelphia.
Where The Cowboys Stand Entering The Preseason
A 10-7 finish would give Dallas its first winning season since 2023.
The Cowboys went 7-9-1 in Schottenheimer’s first year as head coach after missing the postseason the year before.
Dallas scored 471 points last season. Moton’s projection has the bigger change coming on defense, where the Cowboys allowed 511.
Dak Prescott returns after starting all 17 games in 2025. The Cowboys also bring back CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens as their top two receivers.
The first game that counts comes Sept. 13 against the Giants.
Dallas still has three preseason games before then.
The Cowboys practice Thursday and Friday in Oxnard before traveling to Seattle for Saturday’s preseason opener against the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. CT.
Dallas returns to California afterward. The New Orleans Saints join the Cowboys for a joint practice Aug. 18 before Dallas plays its second preseason game Aug. 22 at Arizona.
The preseason finale is Aug. 28 against New Orleans at AT&T Stadium.
