FRISCO, Texas — The Dallas Cowboys came in 11th in ESPN’s 2026 NFL team previews, which the network published Sunday evening for all 32 teams. ESPN’s Football Power Index gives Dallas a 51.9% chance of making the playoffs.
The same model puts the Cowboys at 33.9% to win the NFC East. It projects 9.2 wins.
Dallas plays the fourth-hardest schedule in the league, according to FPI.
In the model’s simulations, the Cowboys’ 90th-percentile record was 12-5. Their 10th-percentile record was 7-10. They went 7-9-1 last season and have missed the playoffs each of the last two years.
Philadelphia ranked 10th in the same previews, one spot ahead of Dallas, with a 62.8% chance at the playoffs. Washington was 22nd with an 18.9% chance. The New York Giants were 23rd at 19.7%.
Todd Archer Sets The Dallas Cowboys Bar At A Playoff Berth
Todd Archer covers the Cowboys for ESPN and wrote the Dallas section of the preview. He frames a playoff berth as a success, and he wrote that the Super Bowl drought might continue past this year either way.
“The postseason is doable with the talent on hand,” Archer wrote.
Dak Prescott’s bar sits higher than that. During a virtual meet and greet with fans on July 17, he said the expectation that comes with playing for the Cowboys has never changed for him and is the reason he plays at all.
“That’s the one thing I love about the Cowboys nation and being a player of the Cowboys is, it’s Super Bowl or bust,” Prescott said, according to Tommy Yarrish of the team’s website. “And truthfully, that’s the only reason you play this game. And so if that’s not your mindset, if that’s not your mindset as a fan, then to me, you don’t have the right passion. You’re not a true winner. So absolutely, we’re working every day for it.”
Archer named the offense the biggest strength on the roster. He wrote that Dallas can hit big pass plays to CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens or run the ball with Javonte Williams. When a defense takes those away, he wrote, the offense can move the ball in shorter pieces. He wrote that Prescott’s health is paramount. Prescott turned 33 on July 29.
The Cowboys averaged 391.9 yards a game last season. That was second in the NFL. They scored the seventh-most points.
Archer named the defense the biggest concern. Cowboys defensive coordinator Christian Parker has never called a defense before. Archer also wrote that Dallas lacks a dominant edge rusher. He listed linebacker depth as a question and cornerback depth as another.
Last season the Cowboys allowed more points than any team in the league. They ranked 30th in yards allowed. Cowboys coach Brian Schottenheimer hired Parker on Jan. 22 as part of a new defensive staff.
Pickens is playing the 2026 season under the franchise tag, valued at $27.3 million, after failing to reach an extension agreement by the July deadline. Meanwhile, Williams signed a three-year, $24 million extension in February. Brandon Aubrey signed a four-year, $28 million extension this offseason. It is the largest contract a kicker has ever received.
The Dallas Cowboys Open At The New York Giants On Sunday
Dallas opens Sunday night at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. Kickoff is 7:20 p.m. CT on NBC.
It is the 128th meeting between the Cowboys and the Giants. John Harbaugh is coaching the Giants after 18 seasons in Baltimore, and Sunday is his first home game.
Cowboys players voted four captains for 2026. Prescott and Aubrey are two of them.
