ARLINGTON, Texas — The Texas Rangers went from AL West favorites to clear underdogs overnight. Texas lost 6-3 to the New York Mets on Tuesday at Globe Life Field, while the Houston Astros beat the Seattle Mariners 7-0 in Seattle. The two results left Texas and Houston tied for first place at 78-79.
FanDuel Sportsbook now lists Houston at -250 to win the AL West and Texas at +205. Before accounting for the sportsbook’s margin, those prices carry implied probabilities of about 71.4% and 32.8%. The market looked very different before Tuesday’s games. At DraftKings, Texas was priced at -150 just to reach the postseason and -140 to win the division, which works out to an implied probability of roughly 58.3% for the division.
The reason for the swing is the tiebreaker. Houston won the season series 9-4, so a tie at the end of the regular season sends the Astros to the playoffs as division champions. The teams do not play each other again, and each has five games left. That means Texas has to finish with a better record outright. Houston’s magic number to clinch the division is five.
How the Texas Rangers Gave Back the Lead
Starting Sept. 12, Texas made up four games on Houston and moved into sole possession of first place, but the lead lasted only three days. The Rangers have now dropped two straight games. This season, Texas has spent 51 days with at least a share of the division lead.
In Tuesday’s loss, the Mets turned a 3-2 deficit into a 5-3 lead with three runs in the sixth inning against Nathan Eovaldi (11-10). Two of those runs came on a double by Francisco Alvarez, and the third came after a foul pop down the first-base line. After the game, first baseman Jake Burger called the loss a bad showing on multiple fronts and said Texas could not expect to win the division while playing that way.
On the mound for New York, Sean Manaea (6-7) pitched six innings, striking out nine batters and allowing three hits. The Mets had given Andy Green a three-year contract earlier Tuesday, and the game was his first as the team’s full-time manager. The night also marked Marcus Semien’s first game in Arlington since the offseason trade that sent him to New York for Brandon Nimmo. Semien went 0-for-5.
Houston Astros Regain Control
In Seattle on Tuesday night, Yordan Alvarez hit a two-run home run to right field in the eighth inning and drove in three runs overall. The homer was his 41st of the season, which matched Tampa Bay’s Junior Caminero for the American League lead. Yordan Alvarez tops the AL with a .314 batting average, and his 102 RBIs trail only Baltimore’s Pete Alonso, who has six more. No player has won a Triple Crown since Detroit’s Miguel Cabrera in 2012. Yordan Alvarez reached 100 RBIs for the second time in his career with a run-scoring single in the first inning.
Christian Walker hit a three-run homer in the third inning that made it 4-0. The home run was his 26th of the season and the 200th of his career. Isaac Paredes added a solo home run in the sixth. Cam Smith ended an 0-for-26 slump with a double.
Houston starter Cristian Javier left after two innings and 45 pitches with tightness in his right groin. Miguel Ullola (1-0) followed with two innings in which he allowed one hit and earned his first major league win. After that, Bennett Sousa, AJ Blubaugh, and Logan VanWey finished off the four-hit shutout. Seattle starter Logan Gilbert (12-11) gave up four runs and a season-high 10 hits in four innings, and the Mariners dropped to 73-84.
After the game, Walker was asked about the final week. “We’ve got to win them all,” Walker said.
Remaining Schedule For Texas And Houston
The Rangers play their last two home games against the Mets. Wednesday’s game starts at 7:05 p.m. CT, and rookie right-hander Nolan McLean (11-10, 3.18 ERA) is scheduled to pitch for New York. As of late Tuesday, Texas had not named its starter. The Rangers then close the regular season with three games at the Minnesota Twins, Friday through Sunday.
Houston finishes its series in Seattle on Wednesday with rookie right-hander Ethan Pecko (1-0, 3.77 ERA) making his fifth major league start against George Kirby (9-11, 4.24). The Astros close the regular season with four games against the Athletics in Sacramento.
Rangers manager Skip Schumaker spoke about the playoff race on the team’s off day Monday. “It doesn’t matter what the record is, that’s the goal,” Schumaker said.
Texas has not won a division title in 10 years.
